Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen; GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators

doi:10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00232-1

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen (Member of study group), GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

39 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

FINDINGS: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

INTERPRETATION: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original language	English
Journal	The Lancet Rheumatology
Volume	5
Issue number	11
Pages (from-to)	E670-E682
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00232-1
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2023

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@article{cda90b042e584b0a8adf02caa59886e0,

title = "Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.METHODS: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.FINDINGS: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).INTERPRETATION: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",

author = "Gill, {Tiffany K} and Mittinty, {Manasi Murthy} and March, {Lyn M} and Steinmetz, {Jaimie D} and Culbreth, {Garland T} and Marita Cross and Kopec, {Jacek A} and Woolf, {Anthony D} and Haile, {Lydia M} and Hailey Hagins and Ong, {Kanyin Liane} and Kopansky-Giles, {Deborah R} and Dreinhoefer, {Karsten E} and Neil Betteridge and Mohammadreza Abbasian and Mitra Abbasifard and krishna Abedi and Adesina, {Miracle Ayomikun} and Aithala, {Janardhana P} and Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi and {Al Thaher}, Yazan and Alalwan, {Tariq A} and Hosam Alzahrani and Sohrab Amiri and Benny Antony and Jalal Arabloo and Aravkin, {Aleksandr Y} and Ashokan Arumugam and Aryal, {Krishna K} and Athari, {Seyyed Shamsadin} and Alok Atreya and Soroush Baghdadi and Mainak Bardhan and Barrero, {Lope H} and Bearne, {Lindsay M} and Bekele, {Alehegn Bekele} and Bensenor, {Isabela M} and Pankaj Bhardwaj and Rajbir Bhatti and Ali Bijani and Theresa Bordianu and Souad Bouaoud and Briggs, {Andrew M} and Cheema, {Huzaifa Ahmad} and Christensen, {Steffan Wittrup McPhee} and Chukwu, {Isaac Sunday} and Benjamin Clarsen and Xiaochen Dai and {de Luca}, Katie and Belay Desye and Meghnath Dhimal and Do, {Thanh Chi} and Fagbamigbe, {Adeniyi Francis} and {Farokh Forghani}, Siamak and Nuno Ferreira and Balasankar Ganesan and Mesfin Gebrehiwot and Ahmad Ghashghaee and Graham, {Simon Matthew} and Harlianto, {Netanja I} and Jan Hartvigsen and Hasaballah, {Ahmed I} and Mohammad Hasanian and Hassen, {Mohammed Bheser} and Hay, {Simon I} and Mohammad Heidari and Hsiao, {Alexander Kevin} and Ilic, {Irena M} and Mohammad Jokar and Himanshu Khajuria and Khan, {Md Jobair} and Praval Khanal and Sorour Khateri and Ali Kiadaliri and Kim, {Min Seo} and Adnan Kisa and Ali-Asghar Kolahi and Kewal Krishan and Vijay Krishnamoorthy and Iv{\'a}n Landires and Bagher Larijani and Le, {Thao Thi Thu} and Lee, {Yo Han} and Lim, {Stephen S} and Justin Lo and Madani, {Seyedeh Panid} and Malag{\'o}n-Rojas, {Jeadran N} and Iram Malik and Marateb, {Hamid Reza} and Mathew, {Ashish J} and Meretoja, {Tuomo J} and Mesregah, {Mohamed Kamal} and Tomislav Mestrovic and Alireza Mirahmadi and Awoke Misganaw and Sadra Mohaghegh and Mokdad, {Ali H} and Kaveh Momenzadeh and Sara Momtazmanesh and Lorenzo Monasta and Moni, {Mohammad Ali} and Yousef Moradi and Ebrahim Mostafavi and Muhammad, {Jibran Sualeh} and Murray, {Christopher J L} and Sathish Muthu and Shumaila Nargus and Hasan Nassereldine and Subas Neupane and Niazi, {Robina Khan} and In-Hwan Oh and Hassan Okati-Aliabad and Abderrahim Oulhaj and Kevin Pacheco-Barrios and Seoyeon Park and Jay Patel and Shrikant Pawar and Paolo Pedersini and Peres, {Mario F P} and Ionela-Roxana Petcu and Petermann-Rocha, {Fanny Emily} and Mohsen Poursadeqiyan and Ibrahim Qattea and Qureshi, {Maryam Faiz} and Quinn Rafferty and Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan and Mosiur Rahman and Ramasamy, {Shakthi Kumaran} and Vahid Rashedi and Redwan, {Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed} and Ribeiro, {Daniel Cury} and Leonardo Roever and Azam Safary and Dominic Sagoe and {Saheb Sharif-Askari}, Fatemeh and Amirhossein Sahebkar and Sana Salehi and Amir Shafaat and Saeed Shahabi and Saurab Sharma and Shashamo, {Bereket Beyene} and Rahman Shiri and Ambrish Singh and Smith, {Amanda E} and Sunuwar, {Dev Ram} and Mohammad Tabish and Samar Tharwat and Irfan Ullah and {Valadan Tahbaz}, Sahel and Vasankari, {Tommi Juhani} and Villafa{\~n}e, {Jorge Hugo} and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Taweewat Wiangkham and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yuyi You and Iman Zare and Peng Zheng and Theo Vos and Brooks, {Peter M} and {GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators}",

note = "{\textcopyright} 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.",

year = "2023",

month = nov,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00232-1",

language = "English",

volume = "5",

pages = "E670--E682",

journal = "The Lancet Rheumatology",

issn = "2665-9913",

publisher = "Lancet Publishing Group",

number = "11",

}

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. / Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee (Member of study group); GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators.
In: The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol. 5, No. 11, 01.11.2023, p. E670-E682.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050

T2 - a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

AU - Gill, Tiffany K

AU - Mittinty, Manasi Murthy

AU - March, Lyn M

AU - Steinmetz, Jaimie D

AU - Culbreth, Garland T

AU - Cross, Marita

AU - Kopec, Jacek A

AU - Woolf, Anthony D

AU - Haile, Lydia M

AU - Hagins, Hailey

AU - Ong, Kanyin Liane

AU - Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R

AU - Dreinhoefer, Karsten E

AU - Betteridge, Neil

AU - Abbasian, Mohammadreza

AU - Abbasifard, Mitra

AU - Abedi, krishna

AU - Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun

AU - Aithala, Janardhana P

AU - Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa

AU - Al Thaher, Yazan

AU - Alalwan, Tariq A

AU - Alzahrani, Hosam

AU - Amiri, Sohrab

AU - Antony, Benny

AU - Arabloo, Jalal

AU - Aravkin, Aleksandr Y

AU - Arumugam, Ashokan

AU - Aryal, Krishna K

AU - Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin

AU - Atreya, Alok

AU - Baghdadi, Soroush

AU - Bardhan, Mainak

AU - Barrero, Lope H

AU - Bearne, Lindsay M

AU - Bekele, Alehegn Bekele

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M

AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj

AU - Bhatti, Rajbir

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Bordianu, Theresa

AU - Bouaoud, Souad

AU - Briggs, Andrew M

AU - Cheema, Huzaifa Ahmad

AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday

AU - Clarsen, Benjamin

AU - Dai, Xiaochen

AU - de Luca, Katie

AU - Desye, Belay

AU - Dhimal, Meghnath

AU - Do, Thanh Chi

AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis

AU - Farokh Forghani, Siamak

AU - Ferreira, Nuno

AU - Ganesan, Balasankar

AU - Gebrehiwot, Mesfin

AU - Ghashghaee, Ahmad

AU - Graham, Simon Matthew

AU - Harlianto, Netanja I

AU - Hartvigsen, Jan

AU - Hasaballah, Ahmed I

AU - Hasanian, Mohammad

AU - Hassen, Mohammed Bheser

AU - Hay, Simon I

AU - Heidari, Mohammad

AU - Hsiao, Alexander Kevin

AU - Ilic, Irena M

AU - Jokar, Mohammad

AU - Khajuria, Himanshu

AU - Khan, Md Jobair

AU - Khanal, Praval

AU - Khateri, Sorour

AU - Kiadaliri, Ali

AU - Kim, Min Seo

AU - Kisa, Adnan

AU - Kolahi, Ali-Asghar

AU - Krishan, Kewal

AU - Krishnamoorthy, Vijay

AU - Landires, Iván

AU - Larijani, Bagher

AU - Le, Thao Thi Thu

AU - Lee, Yo Han

AU - Lim, Stephen S

AU - Lo, Justin

AU - Madani, Seyedeh Panid

AU - Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N

AU - Malik, Iram

AU - Marateb, Hamid Reza

AU - Mathew, Ashish J

AU - Meretoja, Tuomo J

AU - Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal

AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav

AU - Mirahmadi, Alireza

AU - Misganaw, Awoke

AU - Mohaghegh, Sadra

AU - Mokdad, Ali H

AU - Momenzadeh, Kaveh

AU - Momtazmanesh, Sara

AU - Monasta, Lorenzo

AU - Moni, Mohammad Ali

AU - Moradi, Yousef

AU - Mostafavi, Ebrahim

AU - Muhammad, Jibran Sualeh

AU - Murray, Christopher J L

AU - Muthu, Sathish

AU - Nargus, Shumaila

AU - Nassereldine, Hasan

AU - Neupane, Subas

AU - Niazi, Robina Khan

AU - Oh, In-Hwan

AU - Okati-Aliabad, Hassan

AU - Oulhaj, Abderrahim

AU - Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin

AU - Park, Seoyeon

AU - Patel, Jay

AU - Pawar, Shrikant

AU - Pedersini, Paolo

AU - Peres, Mario F P

AU - Petcu, Ionela-Roxana

AU - Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily

AU - Poursadeqiyan, Mohsen

AU - Qattea, Ibrahim

AU - Qureshi, Maryam Faiz

AU - Rafferty, Quinn

AU - Rahimi-Dehgolan, Shahram

AU - Rahman, Mosiur

AU - Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran

AU - Rashedi, Vahid

AU - Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed

AU - Ribeiro, Daniel Cury

AU - Roever, Leonardo

AU - Safary, Azam

AU - Sagoe, Dominic

AU - Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh

AU - Sahebkar, Amirhossein

AU - Salehi, Sana

AU - Shafaat, Amir

AU - Shahabi, Saeed

AU - Sharma, Saurab

AU - Shashamo, Bereket Beyene

AU - Shiri, Rahman

AU - Singh, Ambrish

AU - Smith, Amanda E

AU - Sunuwar, Dev Ram

AU - Tabish, Mohammad

AU - Tharwat, Samar

AU - Ullah, Irfan

AU - Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel

AU - Vasankari, Tommi Juhani

AU - Villafañe, Jorge Hugo

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Wiangkham, Taweewat

AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

AU - You, Yuyi

AU - Zare, Iman

AU - Zheng, Peng

AU - Vos, Theo

AU - Brooks, Peter M

AU - GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators

A2 - Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee

PY - 2023/11/1

Y1 - 2023/11/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.METHODS: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.FINDINGS: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).INTERPRETATION: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.METHODS: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.FINDINGS: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).INTERPRETATION: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

U2 - 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00232-1

DO - 10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00232-1

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37927903

SN - 2665-9913

VL - 5

SP - E670-E682

JO - The Lancet Rheumatology

JF - The Lancet Rheumatology

IS - 11

ER -

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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