Ground impact probability distribution for small unmanned aircraft in ballistic descent

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Abstract

Safety is a key factor in all aviation, and while years of development has made manned aviation relatively safe, the same has yet to happen for unmanned aircraft. However, the rapid development of unmanned aircraft technology means that the range of commercial and scientific applications is growing equally rapid. At the same time the trend in national and international regulations for unmanned aircraft is to take a risk-based approach, effectively requiring risk assessment for every flight operation. This work addresses the growing need for methods for quantitatively evaluating individual flights by modelling the consequences of a ballistic descent of an unmanned aircraft as a result of a major inflight incident. The presented model is a probability density function for the ground impact area based on a second order drag model with probabilistic assumptions on the least well-known parameters of the flight, and includes the effect of wind. The model has low computational complexity and is well-suited for high fidelity simulations for longer flights over populated areas and with changing trajectory parameters.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS)
Number of pages10
PublisherIEEE
Publication date6 Oct 2020
Pages1442-1451
Article number9213990
ISBN (Print)978-1-7281-4279-1
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-7281-4278-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Oct 2020
Event 2020 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS) - Athen, Greece
Duration: 1 Sep 20204 Sep 2020

Conference

Conference 2020 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS)
CountryGreece
CityAthen
Period01/09/202004/09/2020
SeriesInternational Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS)
ISSN2575-7296

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  • Advisor to JARUS

    Anders la Cour-Harbo (Participant), Terrence Martin (Participant), Tom Putland (Participant), Tony Nannini (Participant), Henri Hohtari (Participant) & Joerg Dittrich (Participant)

    Impact: Public policy impact

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