Growth Limits in Large Scale Networks

The Subject of large scale networks is approached from the perspective of the network planner. An analysis of the long term planning problems is presented with the main focus on the changing requirements for large scale networks and the potential problems in meeting these requirements. The problems are analysed in four steps. First the modelling of future user requirements is treated to establish a yardstick against which the technological potential for growth can be measured. Methods for modelling the long term changes of demands are developed and results are presented. In the second step the fundamental technological resources in network technologies are analysed for scalability. Here several technological limits to continued growth are presented. The third step involves a survey of major problems in managing large scale networks given the growth of user requirements and the technological limitations. The rising complexity of network management with the convergence of communications platforms is shown as problematic for both automatic management feasibility and for manpower resource management. In the fourth step the scope is extended to include the present society with the DDN project as its main focus. Here the general perception of the nature and role in society of large scale networks as a fundamental infrastructure is analysed. This analysis focuses on the effects of the technical DDN projects and on the perception of network infrastructure as expressed by key decision makers. A summary of the most pressing growth limits for the coming three decades is given.