Heat Roadmap Europe 1: First Pre-Study for the EU27

David Connolly, Brian Vad Mathiesen, Poul Alberg Østergaard, Bernd Möller, Steffen Nielsen, Henrik Lund, Daniel Trier, Urban Persson, Daniel Nilsson, Sven Werner

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Heat Roadmap Europe (Pre-study 1) investigates the role of district heating in the EU27 energy system by mapping local conditions across Europe, identifying the potential for district heating expansion, and subsequently simulating the potential resource in an hourly model of the EU27 energy system. In 2010, approximately 12% of the space heating demand in Europe is met by district heating, but in this study four alternative scenarios are considered for the EU27 energy system:
1. 2010 with 30% district heating
2. 2010 with 50% district heating
3. 2030 with 30% district heating
4. 2050 with 50% district heating

These scenarios are investigated in two steps. Firstly, district heating replaces individual boilers by converting condensing power plants to combined heat and power plants (CHP) to illustrate how district heating improves the overall efficiency of the energy system. In the second step, additional resources are utilised for heat in the district heating network that would otherwise be wasted such as surplus industrial heat, waste incineration, large-scale solar thermal, and geothermal. In all scenarios considered, the results indicate that in the current (2010) and future (2030/2050) EU27 energy system, district heating will improve the overall efficiency of the energy system, reduce imported fossil fuel consumption, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, reduce the costs of the energy system (by €14 billion/year in 2050), and also creating more jobs in the EU27 since money will be invested in infrastructure instead of imported fossil fuels (approximately 220,000 additional jobs in 2050).
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages101
Commissioning bodyEuroheat & Power, Brussels
Publication statusPublished - May 2012

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