How Many Model Evaluations Are Required to Predict the AEP of A Wind Power Plant?

J P Murcia, Pierre-Elouan Rethore, Anand Natarajan, John Dalsgaard Sørensen

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article in JournalResearchpeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wind farm flow models have advanced considerably with the use of large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations. The main limitation of these techniques is their high computational time requirements; which makes their use for wind farm annual energy production (AEP) predictions expensive. The objective of the present paper is to minimize the number of model evaluations required to capture the wind power plant's AEP using stationary wind farm flow models. Polynomial chaos techniques are proposed based on arbitrary Weibull distributed wind speed and Von Misses distributed wind direction. The correlation between wind direction and wind speed are captured by defining Weibull-parameters as functions of wind direction. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods the expectation and variance of the wind farm power distributions are compared against the traditional binning method with trapezoidal and Simpson's integration rules. The wind farm flow model used in this study is the semi-empirical wake model developed by Larsen [1]. Three test cases are studied: a single turbine, a simple and a real offshore wind power plant. A reduced number of model evaluations for a general wind power plant is proposed based on the convergence of the present method for each case.
Original languageEnglish
Article number012030
Book seriesJournal of Physics: Conference Series (Online)
Volume625
Issue number1
ISSN1742-6596
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventWake Conference 2015 - Uppsala University Campus Gotland, Visby, Sweden
Duration: 9 Jun 201511 Jun 2015
http://space.hgo.se/WakeConferenceGotland2015/

Conference

ConferenceWake Conference 2015
LocationUppsala University Campus Gotland
Country/TerritorySweden
CityVisby
Period09/06/201511/06/2015
Internet address

Keywords

  • Electric power system interconnection
  • Electric utilities
  • large eddy simulation

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'How Many Model Evaluations Are Required to Predict the AEP of A Wind Power Plant?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this