Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information

We show how probabilistic expert systems can be used to analyse forensic identification problems involving DNA mixture traces using quantitative peak area information. Peak area is modelled with conditional Gaussian distributions. The expert system can be used for scertaining whether individuals, whose profiles have been measured, have contributed to the mixture, but also to predict DNA profiles of unknown contributors by separating the mixture into its individual components. The potential of our methodology is illustrated on case data examples and compared with alternative approaces. The advantages are that identification and separation issues can be handled in a unified way within a single network model and the uncertainty associated with the analysis is quantified.