Improved Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Speed in the Context of Structural Risk Assessment

The present paper aims to propose a new formulation of probabilistic model of wind speed in the context of structural risk assessment. The inconsistency between the probability distribution of different levels of wind speed, i.e. high speed and low and normal speed, is identified and analyzed at first. Considering the importance of the accurate probabilistic analysis of wind with high speed on the structural risk assessment, the boundary between the two parts would be identified from the solution to the proposed optimization problem; and correspondingly, the records will be separated. The probability distribution of the two parts would be identified respectively and they will be unified into one framework to facilitate the further risk analysis. Finally the procedure of the formulation in practice is provided. The proposed model will be applied to the probabilistic analysis of the wind speed at Shanghai Pudong based on its four-year data.