Metabolic Sequelae and All-Cause Mortality in Chronic Pancreatitis With and Without Prior Acute Pancreatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk of metabolic sequelae and all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort of chronic pancreatitis (CP) patients with and without prior acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS: We used nationwide health registries to identify all Danish residents (18 years and older) with incident CP from 2000 to 2018. Information on AP/CP diagnoses, metabolic sequelae (post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus [PPDM], exocrine pancreatic dysfunction, and osteoporosis), and all-cause mortality were obtained from Danish national health registries. CP cases were stratified based on the presence of AP before CP diagnosis. The risk of metabolic sequelae and all-cause mortality was expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), calculated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS: A total of 9,655 patients with CP were included. Among patients with CP, 3,913 (40.5%) had a prior AP diagnosis. Compared with patients without a history of AP, patients with prior AP had a decreased risk of death (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.84), which was largely confined to the initial period after CP diagnosis. Patients with prior AP had an increased risk of PPDM (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.38-1.69), which persisted for up to a decade after CP diagnosis. No overall differences in risk were observed for exocrine pancreatic dysfunction (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.87-1.07) and osteoporosis (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.74-1.02).

DISCUSSION: This nationwide study revealed that most of the patients with CP have no prior episode(s) of AP, indicating that an attack of AP sensitizing the pancreas is not essential for CP development. CP patients with and without prior AP have different risk profiles of PPDM and all-cause mortality.