Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEnergies
Volume7
Issue number10
Pages (from-to)6645-6664
Number of pages20
ISSN1996-1073
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

Wind Turbine
Wind turbines
Planning
Offshore wind turbines
Decision Rules
Wind power
Costs
Data storage equipment
Gases
Markov Decision Process
Maintenance
Influence Diagrams
Partially Observable Markov Decision Process
Wind Energy
Decision problem
Oils
Minimise

Bibliographical note

Special Issue: Wind Turbines 2014

Keywords

  • Maintenance planning
  • Risk-based
  • Decision tree
  • Bayesian networks
  • Markov decision processes

Cite this

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title = "Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines",
abstract = "In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.",
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author = "Nielsen, {Jannie S{\o}nderk{\ae}r} and S{\o}rensen, {John Dalsgaard}",
note = "Special Issue: Wind Turbines 2014",
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language = "English",
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journal = "Energies",
issn = "1996-1073",
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Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines. / Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard.

In: Energies, Vol. 7, No. 10, 2014, p. 6645-6664.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

AU - Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

AU - Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

N1 - Special Issue: Wind Turbines 2014

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

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AB - In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.

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KW - Decision tree

KW - Bayesian networks

KW - Markov decision processes

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