Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) Final report

The MIMIC project (Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies) developed proactive management approaches to risks related to maritime oil transportation, focusing on the Gulf of Finland, in the Baltic Sea. In this sea area, the volume of oil transportation has nearly quadrupled during the past ten years. This has raised concern of major oil accidents. The project
- estimated oil transportation volumes for years 2020 and 2030 
- examined the composition of ship crews 
- estimated oil accident probabilities 
- estimated damage in ships caused by an accident, and the consequent oil outflow 
- evaluated optional measures to control oil accident risks and produced a related decision support model 
- developed tools for estimating the length of oiled shoreline after an accident  - developed tools for examining the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of Finnish oil combating vessels and for forecasting the clean-up costs of oil spills 
- improved operational tools for guiding oil combating activities 
- identified and assessed security threats and pondered their connection to safety - analysed the prevailing regulatory system related to maritime safety  - developed a proposal for a proactive risk governance approach for the Gulf of Finland

Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030 were estimated by expert elicitation, and six different scenarios were built. The realization of the scenarios depends on several factors, such as political and economic development in Russia, and the policies of the EU. The composition of the crews of ships sailing in the Gulf of Finland and Archipelago Sea were examined. The survey showed that shipping crews are highly international in the Gulf of Finland, as in the whole Baltic Sea. The result involves a requirement to take multiculturalism into account in ship operations, to enhance the understanding of cultural differences and to improve intercultural communication.

Probabilities for grounding accidents were assessed based on accident reports, and probabilities for collision accidents updated. The analysis indicates that inadequate communication and cooperation on the bridge is the most significant contributing factor in a grounding accident. A simulation model (accidental damage assessment model, ADAM) was developed for estimating the damage in ships caused by different types of accidents, and for predicting the consequent amount and duration of oil outflow. It was concluded that a large number of possible collision scenarios with the current structural configurations of ships would lead to an oil spill. Similarly for groundings, the kinetic energy of a vessel is sufficient to cause severe bottom damage and oil spill, depending on the bottom topology.

The oil transportation scenarios and the results of the accident modelling were integrated into a Bayesian decision support model that enables examining the cause-effect relationships related to oil accidents and their consequences, and evaluating the costeffectiveness of different types of risk control options in reducing the risks of oil accidents. The cost-effectiveness of the ENSI (Enhanced Navigation Support Information) service, compulsory pilotage, and improved crashworthiness of ships was evaluated. According to the results, the ENSI service is the most cost-effective measure to control oil accident risks.

A Bayesian decision support model was also developed for examining the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of Finnish oil combating vessels in the Gulf of Finland. It was found out that the environmental and accident conditions have a bigger impact on the recovery efficiency than the disposition of the oil combating vessels. Another model was built for forecasting the clean-up costs of oil spills and for the optimization of a costeffective oil-combating fleet.

Two approaches were used in assessing the extent of polluted shoreline as a consequence of accidental oil spills. The method developed within the project has potential as a generally applicable tool in estimating the length of polluted shoreline, but needs further development regarding scaling, computing efficiency, and user-friendliness.

The project further developed tools for situation awareness building for oil spill response operations. The integrated Seatrack Web and SmartResponse Web applications enable upto-date assessment of the oil drifting in the sea and environmental values at risk, and thus facilitate decision making regarding effective oil combating activities. The SmartResponse Web includes also a model (ADAM) for assessing ship damage and leakage in a collision or grounding accident, and a section related to maritime security.

Maritime security threats in the whole Baltic Sea were identified and assessed, and their connection to safety pondered. The study indicates that the current security level in the Baltic Sea is relatively good. A conceptual model was outlined for supporting the analysis and evaluation of security threats and facilitating the development of an integrated view on security and safety.

The competence of the regulatory system and policy instruments in ensuring maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland were analysed and improvements were considered. Reanalysing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the existing policy instruments and supporting shipping companies to voluntarily improve their safety performance is recommended. MIMIC proposes establishing a proactive regional risk governance framework involving stakeholders, for analysing, managing and communicating maritime safety risks in the Gulf of Finland.