Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos

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Abstract

We demonstrate the use of general Polynomial Chaos (gPC) in determining the reliability of a mooring system designed for an offshore renewable energy (ORE) device. General Polynomial Chaos is used to forward propagate uncertainties in two design variables, and to obtain the probability density function of the Most Probable Maximum tension in the most loaded line. Then, the probability of failure is estimated using the First Order Reliability Method. For this case study, we obtain a probability of failure of 3.4×10 -6 for the mooring system, around 10 times lower than required by DNV-OS-E301. The most interesting result, however, is that by applying gPC, we can build a probability density function for the tension running only 36 simulations using the deterministic numerical model, instead of hundreds or thousands as would be required by using a Monte-Carlo method. This reduces the computational effort required for probabilistic design and analysis of floating structures, enabling the shift from conservative Partial Safety Factor based design, to Reliability and Risk based design.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference
Number of pages8
PublisherEuropean Tidal and Wave Energy Conference
Publication dateSep 2019
Pages1271-1-1271-8
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2019
Event13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference - Naples, Italy
Duration: 1 Sep 20196 Sep 2019

Conference

Conference13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference
CountryItaly
CityNaples
Period01/09/201906/09/2019

Fingerprint

Mooring
Reliability analysis
Chaos theory
Polynomials
Probability density function
Safety factor
Numerical models
Monte Carlo methods

Keywords

  • Reliability
  • mooring systems
  • general Polynomial Chaos
  • stochastic collocation method
  • floating renewable energy systems
  • offshore renewable energy

Cite this

Moura Paredes, G., Thomsen, J. B., Ferri, F., & Eskilsson, C. (2019). Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos. In Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference (pp. 1271-1-1271-8). European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference.
Moura Paredes, Guilherme ; Thomsen, Jonas Bjerg ; Ferri, Francesco ; Eskilsson, Claes. / Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos. Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference, 2019. pp. 1271-1-1271-8
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Moura Paredes, G, Thomsen, JB, Ferri, F & Eskilsson, C 2019, Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos. in Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference, pp. 1271-1-1271-8, 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference, Naples, Italy, 01/09/2019.

Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos. / Moura Paredes, Guilherme; Thomsen, Jonas Bjerg; Ferri, Francesco; Eskilsson, Claes.

Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference, 2019. p. 1271-1-1271-8.

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceedingArticle in proceedingResearchpeer-review

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N2 - We demonstrate the use of general Polynomial Chaos (gPC) in determining the reliability of a mooring system designed for an offshore renewable energy (ORE) device. General Polynomial Chaos is used to forward propagate uncertainties in two design variables, and to obtain the probability density function of the Most Probable Maximum tension in the most loaded line. Then, the probability of failure is estimated using the First Order Reliability Method. For this case study, we obtain a probability of failure of 3.4×10 -6 for the mooring system, around 10 times lower than required by DNV-OS-E301. The most interesting result, however, is that by applying gPC, we can build a probability density function for the tension running only 36 simulations using the deterministic numerical model, instead of hundreds or thousands as would be required by using a Monte-Carlo method. This reduces the computational effort required for probabilistic design and analysis of floating structures, enabling the shift from conservative Partial Safety Factor based design, to Reliability and Risk based design.

AB - We demonstrate the use of general Polynomial Chaos (gPC) in determining the reliability of a mooring system designed for an offshore renewable energy (ORE) device. General Polynomial Chaos is used to forward propagate uncertainties in two design variables, and to obtain the probability density function of the Most Probable Maximum tension in the most loaded line. Then, the probability of failure is estimated using the First Order Reliability Method. For this case study, we obtain a probability of failure of 3.4×10 -6 for the mooring system, around 10 times lower than required by DNV-OS-E301. The most interesting result, however, is that by applying gPC, we can build a probability density function for the tension running only 36 simulations using the deterministic numerical model, instead of hundreds or thousands as would be required by using a Monte-Carlo method. This reduces the computational effort required for probabilistic design and analysis of floating structures, enabling the shift from conservative Partial Safety Factor based design, to Reliability and Risk based design.

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BT - Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference

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Moura Paredes G, Thomsen JB, Ferri F, Eskilsson C. Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos. In Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference. 2019. p. 1271-1-1271-8