### Abstract

Original language | English |
---|---|

Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 13^{th} European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference |

Number of pages | 8 |

Publisher | European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference |

Publication date | Sep 2019 |

Pages | 1271-1-1271-8 |

Publication status | Published - Sep 2019 |

Event | 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference - Naples, Italy Duration: 1 Sep 2019 → 6 Sep 2019 |

### Conference

Conference | 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference |
---|---|

Country | Italy |

City | Naples |

Period | 01/09/2019 → 06/09/2019 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- Reliability
- mooring systems
- general Polynomial Chaos
- stochastic collocation method
- floating renewable energy systems
- offshore renewable energy

### Cite this

*Proceedings of the 13*(pp. 1271-1-1271-8). European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference.

^{th}European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference}

*Proceedings of the 13*European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference, pp. 1271-1-1271-8, 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference, Naples, Italy, 01/09/2019.

^{th}European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference.**Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos.** / Moura Paredes, Guilherme; Thomsen, Jonas Bjerg; Ferri, Francesco; Eskilsson, Claes.

^{th}European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference, 2019. p. 1271-1-1271-8.

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceeding › Article in proceeding › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Mooring system reliability analysis of an ORE device using general Polynomial Chaos

AU - Moura Paredes, Guilherme

AU - Thomsen, Jonas Bjerg

AU - Ferri, Francesco

AU - Eskilsson, Claes

PY - 2019/9

Y1 - 2019/9

N2 - We demonstrate the use of general Polynomial Chaos (gPC) in determining the reliability of a mooring system designed for an offshore renewable energy (ORE) device. General Polynomial Chaos is used to forward propagate uncertainties in two design variables, and to obtain the probability density function of the Most Probable Maximum tension in the most loaded line. Then, the probability of failure is estimated using the First Order Reliability Method. For this case study, we obtain a probability of failure of 3.4×10 -6 for the mooring system, around 10 times lower than required by DNV-OS-E301. The most interesting result, however, is that by applying gPC, we can build a probability density function for the tension running only 36 simulations using the deterministic numerical model, instead of hundreds or thousands as would be required by using a Monte-Carlo method. This reduces the computational effort required for probabilistic design and analysis of floating structures, enabling the shift from conservative Partial Safety Factor based design, to Reliability and Risk based design.

AB - We demonstrate the use of general Polynomial Chaos (gPC) in determining the reliability of a mooring system designed for an offshore renewable energy (ORE) device. General Polynomial Chaos is used to forward propagate uncertainties in two design variables, and to obtain the probability density function of the Most Probable Maximum tension in the most loaded line. Then, the probability of failure is estimated using the First Order Reliability Method. For this case study, we obtain a probability of failure of 3.4×10 -6 for the mooring system, around 10 times lower than required by DNV-OS-E301. The most interesting result, however, is that by applying gPC, we can build a probability density function for the tension running only 36 simulations using the deterministic numerical model, instead of hundreds or thousands as would be required by using a Monte-Carlo method. This reduces the computational effort required for probabilistic design and analysis of floating structures, enabling the shift from conservative Partial Safety Factor based design, to Reliability and Risk based design.

KW - Reliability

KW - mooring systems

KW - general Polynomial Chaos

KW - stochastic collocation method

KW - floating renewable energy systems

KW - offshore renewable energy

M3 - Article in proceeding

SP - 1271-1-1271-8

BT - Proceedings of the 13th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference

PB - European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference

ER -

^{th}European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference. European Tidal and Wave Energy Conference. 2019. p. 1271-1-1271-8