Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

David N. Barton, Håkon Sundt, Ana Adeva Bustos, Hans-Petter Fjeldstad, Richard Hedger, Torbjørn Forseth, Berit köhler, Øystein Aas, Knut Alfredsen, Anders Læsø Madsen

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Abstract

The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenges of providing decision-support to a real-world habitat remediation process.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104604
JournalEnvironmental Modelling & Software
Volume124
ISSN1364-8152
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Fingerprint

decision analysis
Decision theory
Bayesian networks
ecosystem service
Ecosystems
Rivers
Remediation
remediation
river
smolt
habitat
esthetics
stakeholder
modeling
decision

Keywords

  • Angling
  • Atlantic salmon
  • Bayesian network (BN)
  • Disproportionate cost
  • Good ecological potential
  • Multi-attribute valuation theory (MAVT)
  • River aesthetics
  • Valuation
  • Water framework directive (WFD)

Cite this

Barton, David N. ; Sundt, Håkon ; Adeva Bustos, Ana ; Fjeldstad, Hans-Petter ; Hedger, Richard ; Forseth, Torbjørn ; köhler, Berit ; Aas, Øystein ; Alfredsen, Knut ; Madsen, Anders Læsø. / Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river. In: Environmental Modelling & Software. 2019 ; Vol. 124.
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abstract = "The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenges of providing decision-support to a real-world habitat remediation process.",
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Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river. / Barton, David N.; Sundt, Håkon; Adeva Bustos, Ana; Fjeldstad, Hans-Petter; Hedger, Richard; Forseth, Torbjørn; köhler, Berit; Aas, Øystein; Alfredsen, Knut; Madsen, Anders Læsø.

In: Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 124, 104604, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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AU - Barton, David N.

AU - Sundt, Håkon

AU - Adeva Bustos, Ana

AU - Fjeldstad, Hans-Petter

AU - Hedger, Richard

AU - Forseth, Torbjørn

AU - köhler, Berit

AU - Aas, Øystein

AU - Alfredsen, Knut

AU - Madsen, Anders Læsø

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