Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceedingArticle in proceedingResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering : ICASP13
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019
Event13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 26 May 201930 May 2019
https://www.icasp13.snu.ac.kr/

Conference

Conference13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
LocationSeoul National University
CountryKorea, Republic of
CitySeoul
Period26/05/201930/05/2019
Internet address

Fingerprint

Wind turbines
Decision making
Fatigue of materials
Inspection
Uncertainty

Cite this

Nielsen, J. S., Dimitrov, N. K., & Sørensen, J. D. (Accepted/In press). Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13
Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær ; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov ; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard. / Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019.
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abstract = "This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.",
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Nielsen, JS, Dimitrov, NK & Sørensen, JD 2019, Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. in Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, 26/05/2019.

Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. / Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard.

Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019.

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceedingArticle in proceedingResearchpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines

AU - Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

AU - Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

AU - Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.

AB - This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.

M3 - Article in proceeding

BT - Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

ER -

Nielsen JS, Dimitrov NK, Sørensen JD. Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019