Outcome prediction model and prognostic biomarkers for COVID-19 patients in Vietnam

Hien Thi Thu Nguyen, Vang Le-Quy, Son Van Ho, Jakob Holm Dalsgaard Thomsen, Malene Pontoppidan Stoico, Hoang Vang Tong, Nhat-Linh Nguyen, Henrik Bygum Krarup, Son Hong Nguyen, Viet Quoc Tran, Toan Linh Nguyen, Anh-Tuan Dinh-Xuan*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Background: Accurate prognosis is important either after acute infection or during long-term follow-up of patients infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This study aims to predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity based on clinical and biological indicators, and to identify biomarkers for prognostic assessment.

Methods: We included 261 Vietnamese COVID-19 patients, who were classified into moderate and severe groups. Disease severity prediction based on biomarkers and clinical parameters was performed by applying machine learning and statistical methods using the combination of clinical and biological data.

Results: The random forest model could predict with 97% accuracy the likelihood of COVID-19 patients who subsequently worsened to the severe condition. The most important indicators were interleukin (IL)-6, ferritin and D-dimer. The model could still predict with 92% accuracy after removing IL-6 from the analysis to generalise the applicability of the model to hospitals with limited capacity for IL-6 testing. The five most effective indicators were C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, IL-6, ferritin and dyspnoea. Two different sets of biomarkers (D-dimer, IL-6 and ferritin, and CRP, D-dimer and IL-6) are applicable for the assessment of disease severity and prognosis. The two biomarker sets were further tested through machine learning algorithms and relatively validated on two Danish COVID-19 patient groups (n=32 and n=100). The results indicated that various biomarker sets combined with clinical data can be used for detection of the potential to develop the severe condition.

Conclusion: This study provided a simple and reliable model using two different sets of biomarkers to assess disease severity and predict clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients in Vietnam.
Original languageEnglish
Article number00481-2022
JournalERJ Open Research
Volume9
Issue number2
Number of pages12
ISSN2312-0541
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2023

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