Probabilistic analysis in normal operation of distribution system with distributed generation

Nowadays, the incorporation of high levels of small-scale non-dispatchable distributed generation is leading to the transition from the traditional 'vertical' power system structure to a 'horizontally-operated' power system, where the distribution networks contain both stochastic generation and load. This fact increases the number of stochastic inputs and dependence structures between them need to be considered. The deterministic analysis is not enough to cope with these issues and a new approach is needed. Probabilistic analysis provides a better approach. Moreover, as distribution systems consist of a small areas, the dependence between stochastic inputs should be considered. In this paper, probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation is described and applied to a real system.