Probabilistic Modelling of Combined Sewer Overflow Using the First Order Reliability Method

Søren Thorndahl, Kjeld Schaarup-Jensen, Jacob Birk Jensen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a new and alternative method (in the context of urban drainage) for probabilistic hydrodynamical analysis of drainage systems in general and especially prediction of combined sewer overflow. Using a probabilistic shell it is possible to implement both input and parameter uncertainties on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE combined with the probabilistic First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Applying statistical characteristics on several years of rainfall, it is possible to derive a parameterization of the rainfall input and the failure probability and return period of combined sewer overflow to receiving waters can be found.
Original languageEnglish
JournalWater Science and Technology
Volume57
Issue number9
Pages (from-to)1337-1344
ISSN0273-1223
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Keywords

  • Combined sewer overflow
  • First order Reliability Method (FORM)
  • Monte Carlo Sampling
  • MOUSE
  • Uncertainties
  • Urban drainage modelling

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