Probabilistic modelling of combined sewer overflow using the First Order Reliability Method

Søren Thorndahl, Kjeld Schaarup-Jensen, Jacob Birk Jensen

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Abstract

This paper presents a new and alternative method (in the context of urban drainage) for probabilistic hydrodynamical analysis of drainage systems in general and especially prediction of combined sewer overflow. Using a probabilistic shell it is possible to implement both input and parameter uncertainties on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE combined with the probabilistic First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Applying statistical characteristics on several years of rainfall, it is possible to derive a parameterization of the rainfall input and the failure probability and return period of combined sewer overflow to receiving waters can be found.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSewer Processes and Networks 5th International Conference : August 29-31, 2007 : Delft, the Netherlands : Conference proceedings
EditorsM. van der Meulen, J.A.E. ten Veldhuis, R.P.S. Schilperoot
PublisherDelft University of Technology, Department of Sanitary Engineering
Publication date2007
Pages91-100
Publication statusPublished - 2007
EventThe International Conference on Sewer Processes and Networks - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 29 Aug 200731 Aug 2007
Conference number: 5

Conference

ConferenceThe International Conference on Sewer Processes and Networks
Number5
Country/TerritoryNetherlands
CityDelft
Period29/08/200731/08/2007

Bibliographical note

PDF for print: 8 pp.

Keywords

  • Combined sewer overflow
  • First order Reliability Method
  • FORM
  • Uncertainties
  • Monte Carlo Sampling
  • Urban Drainage Modelling
  • MOUSE

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