Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning

Monika Sandelic; Ariya Sangwongwanich; Saeed Peyghami; Frede Blaabjerg

doi:10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304

Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning

Monika Sandelic^*, Ariya Sangwongwanich, Saeed Peyghami, Frede Blaabjerg

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceeding › Article in proceeding › Research › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

52 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The power electronics system reliability is strongly dependent on the environmental and operating conditions at the installation site. During the reliability modelling, a mission profile-based procedure is traditionally employed to account for this dependency. To accurately estimate the reliability, mission profiles need to include the low resolution time intervals (e.g., several minutes per sample). The main forecasting challenge is the accurate prediction of such profiles for long-term prediction horizons, such as several years ahead. Therefore, in this paper, a mission profile forecasting method suitable for long-term reliability-oriented planning is proposed. The benefit of this method includes multi-year mission profile prediction with high time resolution (i.e., 1 minute per sample) suitable for power electronics reliability studies. A case study reveals that the proposed forecasting method enables power electronics modelling with less than 5% relative error in reliability estimation over different time horizons.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG)
Number of pages	6
Publisher	IEEE
Publication date	Jun 2022
Pages	1-6
Article number	9923304
ISBN (Print)	978-1-6654-6619-6
ISBN (Electronic)	978-1-6654-6618-9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022
Event	13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG 2022) - Kiel, Germany Duration: 26 Jun 2022 → 29 Jun 2022 https://pedg2022.org/

Conference

Conference	13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG 2022)
Country/Territory	Germany
City	Kiel
Period	26/06/2022 → 29/06/2022
Internet address	https://pedg2022.org/

Series	IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG)
ISSN	2329-5767

Keywords

design
long-term forecasting
power electronics
reliability

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10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304

Final_PEDG2022Accepted author manuscript, 1.35 MB

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Sandelic, M., Sangwongwanich, A., Peyghami, S., & Blaabjerg, F. (2022). Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning. In Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG) (pp. 1-6). Article 9923304 IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304

Sandelic, Monika ; Sangwongwanich, Ariya ; Peyghami, Saeed et al. / Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning. Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG). IEEE, 2022. pp. 1-6 (IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG) ).

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title = "Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning",

abstract = "The power electronics system reliability is strongly dependent on the environmental and operating conditions at the installation site. During the reliability modelling, a mission profile-based procedure is traditionally employed to account for this dependency. To accurately estimate the reliability, mission profiles need to include the low resolution time intervals (e.g., several minutes per sample). The main forecasting challenge is the accurate prediction of such profiles for long-term prediction horizons, such as several years ahead. Therefore, in this paper, a mission profile forecasting method suitable for long-term reliability-oriented planning is proposed. The benefit of this method includes multi-year mission profile prediction with high time resolution (i.e., 1 minute per sample) suitable for power electronics reliability studies. A case study reveals that the proposed forecasting method enables power electronics modelling with less than 5% relative error in reliability estimation over different time horizons.",

keywords = "design, long-term forecasting, power electronics, reliability",

author = "Monika Sandelic and Ariya Sangwongwanich and Saeed Peyghami and Frede Blaabjerg",

year = "2022",

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doi = "10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304",

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booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG)",

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Sandelic, M, Sangwongwanich, A , Peyghami, S & Blaabjerg, F 2022, Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning. in Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG)., 9923304, IEEE, IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG) , pp. 1-6, 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG 2022), Kiel, Germany, 26/06/2022. https://doi.org/10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304

Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning. / Sandelic, Monika; Sangwongwanich, Ariya ; Peyghami, Saeed et al.
Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG). IEEE, 2022. p. 1-6 9923304 (IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG) ).

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceeding › Article in proceeding › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning

AU - Sandelic, Monika

AU - Sangwongwanich, Ariya

AU - Peyghami, Saeed

AU - Blaabjerg, Frede

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - The power electronics system reliability is strongly dependent on the environmental and operating conditions at the installation site. During the reliability modelling, a mission profile-based procedure is traditionally employed to account for this dependency. To accurately estimate the reliability, mission profiles need to include the low resolution time intervals (e.g., several minutes per sample). The main forecasting challenge is the accurate prediction of such profiles for long-term prediction horizons, such as several years ahead. Therefore, in this paper, a mission profile forecasting method suitable for long-term reliability-oriented planning is proposed. The benefit of this method includes multi-year mission profile prediction with high time resolution (i.e., 1 minute per sample) suitable for power electronics reliability studies. A case study reveals that the proposed forecasting method enables power electronics modelling with less than 5% relative error in reliability estimation over different time horizons.

AB - The power electronics system reliability is strongly dependent on the environmental and operating conditions at the installation site. During the reliability modelling, a mission profile-based procedure is traditionally employed to account for this dependency. To accurately estimate the reliability, mission profiles need to include the low resolution time intervals (e.g., several minutes per sample). The main forecasting challenge is the accurate prediction of such profiles for long-term prediction horizons, such as several years ahead. Therefore, in this paper, a mission profile forecasting method suitable for long-term reliability-oriented planning is proposed. The benefit of this method includes multi-year mission profile prediction with high time resolution (i.e., 1 minute per sample) suitable for power electronics reliability studies. A case study reveals that the proposed forecasting method enables power electronics modelling with less than 5% relative error in reliability estimation over different time horizons.

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Sandelic M, Sangwongwanich A , Peyghami S , Blaabjerg F. Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning. In Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE 13th International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG). IEEE. 2022. p. 1-6. 9923304. (IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems (PEDG) ). doi: 10.1109/PEDG54999.2022.9923304

Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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AUB Link

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REPEPS: REliable Power Electronic based Power System

Cite this

Reliability Modelling of Power Electronics with Mission Profile Forecasting for Long-Term Planning

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

AUB Link

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

REPEPS: REliable Power Electronic based Power System

Cite this