Smart Energy Aalborg: Matching End-Use Heat Saving Measures and Heat Supply Costs to Achieve Least Cost Heat Supply

Energy efficiency improvements of buildings is widely recognized as an important part of reaching future sustainable energy systems, as these both reduce the need for energy and improve the efficiency of the heat supply. Finding the correct level of efficiency measures, depends on the type of measure, on the supply system typology as well as on the heat supply cost. As this information is often building-specific, most analyses related to energy efficiency in buildings are carried out in relation to specific renovation projects, while energy plans for larger areas make crude assumptions regarding levels of savings and costs. This article aims at improving the latter, by using a detailed heat atlas in combination with specific marginal energy renovation costs, in a study of Aalborg Municipality in Denmark. In the analysis, all buildings in the municipality are mapped at building level and both the marginal energy efficiency measure costs and the marginal heat supply costs are identified. The buildings are then sorted by their supply type, and marginal costs curves on supply and savings are compared to determine the feasible level of efficiency measures in each building. The results show that both the building type and the supply costs have a large influence on the feasible measures. Furthermore, the results show that a demand reduction of 30% in district heating areas, 35% for buildings with heat pumps and 37% for buildings with oil boilers, for the examined buildings, is socio economically feasible in a Business as Usual 2050 Aalborg Municipality scenario.