Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Annika E. Nilsson, Marcus Carson, Douglas S. Cost, Bruce Forbes, Riina Haavisto, Anna Karlsdottir, Joan Nymand Larsen, Øyvind Paasche, Simo Sarkki, Sanne Vammen Larsen, Alexander Pelyasov

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include diversification of whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed to include attention in participatory scenario exercises to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved by approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on how attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures at a time of rapid environmental and social change.
Original languageEnglish
JournalPolar Geography
ISSN1088-937X
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019

Fingerprint

Arctic
Arctic region
Decision Making
decision making
Exercise
scenario
indigenous knowledge
methodology
traditional knowledge
Conservation of Natural Resources
social change
Social Change
Research
environmental change
sustainable development
trajectory
exercise
event
research practice
diversification

Keywords

  • Scenarios
  • Participatory methods
  • Indicators
  • Arctic
  • Sustainable development
  • Co-production of knowledge

Cite this

Nilsson, A. E., Carson, M., Cost, D. S., Forbes, B., Haavisto, R., Karlsdottir, A., ... Pelyasov, A. (Accepted/In press). Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. Polar Geography.
Nilsson, Annika E. ; Carson, Marcus ; Cost, Douglas S. ; Forbes, Bruce ; Haavisto, Riina ; Karlsdottir, Anna ; Larsen, Joan Nymand ; Paasche, Øyvind ; Sarkki, Simo ; Larsen, Sanne Vammen ; Pelyasov, Alexander. / Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. In: Polar Geography. 2019.
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Nilsson, AE, Carson, M, Cost, DS, Forbes, B, Haavisto, R, Karlsdottir, A, Larsen, JN, Paasche, Ø, Sarkki, S, Larsen, SV & Pelyasov, A 2019, 'Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic' Polar Geography.

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. / Nilsson, Annika E.; Carson, Marcus; Cost, Douglas S.; Forbes, Bruce; Haavisto, Riina; Karlsdottir, Anna; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Paasche, Øyvind; Sarkki, Simo; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Pelyasov, Alexander.

In: Polar Geography, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

AU - Nilsson, Annika E.

AU - Carson, Marcus

AU - Cost, Douglas S.

AU - Forbes, Bruce

AU - Haavisto, Riina

AU - Karlsdottir, Anna

AU - Larsen, Joan Nymand

AU - Paasche, Øyvind

AU - Sarkki, Simo

AU - Larsen, Sanne Vammen

AU - Pelyasov, Alexander

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include diversification of whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed to include attention in participatory scenario exercises to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved by approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on how attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures at a time of rapid environmental and social change.

AB - Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include diversification of whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed to include attention in participatory scenario exercises to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved by approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on how attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures at a time of rapid environmental and social change.

KW - scenarios

KW - Scenarios

KW - Participatory methods

KW - Indicators

KW - Arctic

KW - Sustainable development

KW - Co-production of knowledge

M3 - Journal article

JO - Polar Geography

JF - Polar Geography

SN - 1088-937X

ER -

Nilsson AE, Carson M, Cost DS, Forbes B, Haavisto R, Karlsdottir A et al. Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. Polar Geography. 2019.