Transport electrification scenarios for decarbonization of the European transport sector by 2050

Hamza Abid*, Mikkel Strunge Kany, Brian Vad Mathiesen, Steffen Nielsen, David William Maya-Drysdale

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceedingArticle in proceedingResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

In response to the present climate crisis, increased penetration of energy-efficient technologies in the transport sector is of paramount importance if Europe is to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Electrification thus offers great opportunities for increasing the overall energy efficiency of the transport sector. This study analyzes two different electrification scenarios for a 100 % renewable energy-based transport sector in the EU. The first scenario – ‘electrification and e-fuels’ makes use of electro fuels and battery electric vehicles for electrification, whereas in the second – ‘electrification +’ scenario, a deeper level of electrification is envisioned with the use of electric roads for heavy-duty transport.

The results from these scenarios are compared with a traditional baseline development for 2050 in terms of final energy demand and transport systems costs. The results indicate that it is entirely possible to achieve carbon neutrality in the transport sector without incurring huge additional costs by going forward with a deep level of electrification.

The annual transport system costs for the ‘electrification +’ scenario are comparable to the baseline scenario in 2050. This is possible due to a reduction in the overall energy demand by 26 % in the ‘electrification and e-fuels’ scenario and by 33 % in the ‘electrification +’ scenario as compared to the baseline. The costs related to vehicles increase slightly in the electrification scenarios, but the increased costs are balanced out by the reduction in fuel costs. The results also highlight that options like electric road systems provide an energy-efficient alternative to synthetic electro-fuels for heavy-duty trucks where battery electrification is limited and that these fuels should be reserved for hard to electrify sectors like aviation and shipping.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationeceee Summer Study proceedings : eceee 2021 Summer Study on energy efficiency: a new reality?
Number of pages9
PublisherEuropean Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, ECEEE
Publication date2021
Pages751-759
ISBN (Print)978-91-983878-8-9
ISBN (Electronic)978-91-983878-9-3
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Eventeceee 2021 Digital Summer Study: Energy efficiency in the new reality - Virtual
Duration: 7 Jun 202111 Jun 2021
https://www.eceee.org/events/calendar/event/eceee-2021-digital-summer-study/

Conference

Conferenceeceee 2021 Digital Summer Study
LocationVirtual
Period07/06/202111/06/2021
Internet address
SeriesECEEE Summer Study
Volume2021
ISSN1653-7025

Bibliographical note

This research was funded by the project sEEnergies, European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action under Grant Agreement No 846463

Keywords

  • electric roads
  • electrification
  • scenario study
  • mobility
  • alternative fuels
  • electro fuels

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