Transport electrification scenarios for decarbonization of the European transport sector by 2050

In response to the present climate crisis, increased penetration of energy-efficient technologies in the transport sector is of paramount importance if Europe is to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Electrification thus offers great opportunities for increasing the overall energy efficiency of the transport sector. This study analyzes two different electrification scenarios for a 100 % renewable energy-based transport sector in the EU. The first scenario – ‘electrification and e-fuels’ makes use of electro fuels and battery electric vehicles for electrification, whereas in the second – ‘electrification +’ scenario, a deeper level of electrification is envisioned with the use of electric roads for heavy-duty transport.

The results from these scenarios are compared with a traditional baseline development for 2050 in terms of final energy demand and transport systems costs. The results indicate that it is entirely possible to achieve carbon neutrality in the transport sector without incurring huge additional costs by going forward with a deep level of electrification.

The annual transport system costs for the ‘electrification +’ scenario are comparable to the baseline scenario in 2050. This is possible due to a reduction in the overall energy demand by 26 % in the ‘electrification and e-fuels’ scenario and by 33 % in the ‘electrification +’ scenario as compared to the baseline. The costs related to vehicles increase slightly in the electrification scenarios, but the increased costs are balanced out by the reduction in fuel costs. The results also highlight that options like electric road systems provide an energy-efficient alternative to synthetic electro-fuels for heavy-duty trucks where battery electrification is limited and that these fuels should be reserved for hard to electrify sectors like aviation and shipping.