Utilizing Device-level Demand Forecasting for Flexibility Markets

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10 Citations (Scopus)


The uncertainty in the power supply due to fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) has severe (financial and other) implications for energy market players. In this paper, we present a device-level Demand Response (DR) scheme that captures the atomic (all available) flexibilities in energy demand and provides the largest possible solution space to generate demand/supply schedules that minimize market imbalances. We evaluate the effectiveness and feasibility of widely used forecasting models for device-level flexibility analysis. In a typical device-level flexibility forecast, a market player is more concerned with the utility that the demand flexibility brings to the market, rather than the intrinsic forecast accuracy. In this regard, we provide comprehensive predictive modeling and scheduling of demand flexibility from household appliances to demonstrate the (financial and otherwise) viability of introducing flexibility-based DR in the Danish/Nordic market. Further, we investigate the correlation between the potential utility and the accuracy of the demand forecast model. Furthermore, we perform a number of experiments to determine the data granularity that provides the best financial reward to market players for adopting the proposed DR scheme. A cost-benefit analysis of forecast results shows that even with somewhat low forecast accuracy, market players can achieve regulation cost savings of 54% of the theoretically optimal.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicatione-Energy 2018 - Proceedings of the 9th ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems
Number of pages11
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery
Publication date12 Jun 2018
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-4503-5767-8
Publication statusPublished - 12 Jun 2018
EventNinth ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems (ACM e-Energy) - , Germany
Duration: 12 Jun 201815 Jun 2018


ConferenceNinth ACM International Conference on Future Energy Systems (ACM e-Energy)


  • Device-level demand forecasting
  • Energy flexibility
  • Flex-offers


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