Abstract
In order to assess the present and predict the future distribution system performance using a probabilistic model, verification of the model is crucial. This paper illustrates the error caused by using traditional Monte Carlo (MC) based probabilistic load flow (PLF) when involving tap-changing transformers. This is due to the time-dependent feature of tap position, which is not taken into account in the traditional MC method. A modified MC method using block sampling is proposed to take into account the time-dependent feature of the tap position. Block sampling estimates the tap position in the load flow calculation at the present hour by using results obtained from the previous hours. Simulation results show big improvement when block sampling is used as compared to the traditional MC method. Finally, 100 simulation runs of the PLF are performed to further ascertain the accuracy of the results obtained from the developed probabilistic model.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 16th Power Systems Computation Conference |
Publisher | University of Strathclyde |
Publication date | 2008 |
Pages | 7 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 978-0-947649-28-9 |
Publication status | Published - 2008 |
Event | Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC2008) - Glasgow, United Kingdom Duration: 14 Jul 2008 → 18 Jul 2008 Conference number: 16 |
Conference
Conference | Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC2008) |
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Number | 16 |
Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
City | Glasgow |
Period | 14/07/2008 → 18/07/2008 |
Keywords
- Dispersed generation
- Model verification
- Monte Carlo
- Probabilistic load flow
- Tap position