Advanced and Efficient Probabilistic Response Modelling and Analysis

The developed models and analysis techniques shall facilitate efficient and systematic analysis of existing offshore facilities to support decision making with respect to risk mitigation measures such as strengthening but also to set criteria for risk management through shutdown and evacuation. The probabilistic models shall address failure events in a life-cycle perspective accounting consistently for the dependency structure of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties – with some emphasis on model uncertainties. Probabilistic meta- and surrogate models such as polynomial chaos expansions and simple Bar and Membrane (BM) models shall be investigated as means of efficient probabilistic analysis. Additionally probabilistic modelling of dynamic effects though dynamic amplification / DAF factors shall be included. The main aim of the project is to accelerate simulation based investigations of risk of failure due to extreme loads.