Consequence assessment in earthquake risk management using indicators

The present paper reports on the methodical developments in regard to the modelling and assessment of consequences due to earthquakes within a multidisciplinary research project presently performed at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. The research project aims to develop a generic decision theoretical framework for the consistent quantitative and rational management of earthquake risks in three situations, namely before, during and after an earthquake. First the general framework for the earthquake risk management project is outlined. Thereafter the specific issues relating to the modelling of consequences of earthquakes are addressed including a review of existing methodologies and results of research projects reported in the literature. Finally an example of a Bayesian Probabilistic Net model considered in the project for consequence analysis is presented and it is explained how the net may be utilized for assessing the consequences of relevance prior, during and after an earthquake.