Study of Power Fluctuation from Dispersed Generations and Loads and its Impact on a Distribution Network through a Probabilistic Approach

In order to assess the performance of distribution system under normal operating conditions with large integration of renewable energy based dispersed generation (DG) units, probabilistic modeling of the distribution system is necessary in order to take into consideration the stochastic behavior of load demands and DG units such as wind generation and combined heat and power plant generation. This paper classifies probabilistic models of load demands and DG units into summer and winter period, weekday and weekend as well as in 24 hours a day. The voltage results from the probabilistic load flow based on Monte Carlo method and those from the statistical measurement data are compared. Simulation results from the probabilistic model show good agreement with those from the statistical measurement data.