Can an island transition from total oil and gas dependence to 100% wind and solar power within 15 years?

An economic energy transition for the Isle of Man has been tested and optimised by combining the results of energy system and power-flow modelling. The island lies between Ireland and the UK and currently relies on an 80 MW gas-fuelled power plant for electricity. The modelling shows that this plant can be replaced with 100 MW of local wind power and 40 MW of local solar photovoltaic energy by utilising a staged approach, first building a high voltage transmission line to the island’s capital, then reinforcing the grid around relevant substations and finally installing an additional sub-sea cable. Balance and stability can be maintained with some or all of the following – interconnection, long-duration energy storage, short-duration energy storage, various forms of power electronics and synchronous condensers. The specific problem of intermittent supply versus variable demand is reflected in the fact that only 65% of the wind and solar energy can be used when it is generated – the rest has to be exported or stored. Whichever route is taken, the cost of renewable power is less than that from fossil fuels at current prices.