Vocational versus General Upper Secondary Education and Earnings

We estimate the effects of completing vocational rather than general upper secondary education programs on earnings at age 28 and, using surrogate index techniques, at age 40. We apply longitudinal administrative data for Denmark, and marginal treatment effect models, with distances to educational institutions as instruments. We find significant and substantial heterogeneity in earnings effects consistent with selection on gains. A policy shifting students at the margin towards vocational education tends to have small and insignificant long-term effects for females and for males with low math skills, but negative long-term effects for males with high math skills.