TY - JOUR
T1 - Commercial use of GM crop technology
T2 - Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework
AU - Borch, Kristian
AU - Rasmussen, Birgitte
PY - 2002/11
Y1 - 2002/11
N2 - The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.
AB - The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.
KW - Biotechnology stakeholder panel
KW - Controversial technology
KW - Regulatory decision-making
KW - Strategic planning
KW - Technological foresight
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0036836476&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00164-0
DO - 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00164-0
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:0036836476
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 69
SP - 765
EP - 780
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
IS - 8
ER -